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Staying on Track: UNLV Population Forecast Continues to Project 1 Million More Residents in Southern Nevada

Southern Nevada’s population of about 2.33 million is expected to grow 1.8% in 2022 – or 41,900 more people – and is still on track to add more than 1 million to about 3 .39 million by 2060, according to a new report published by the Center for Economic and Business Research (CBER) of UNLV.

By 2040 alone, Clark County’s population is expected to increase by 698,000, pushing the local population past the 3 million mark. But first, CBER predicts robust growth will continue through 2023 and 2024 as Southern Nevada continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. This increase reflects the strength of economic activity stimulated by planned infrastructure investments, including investments in transport infrastructure such as the high-speed rail project and the addition of new hotel rooms.

Satellite imagery shows the growth of the Las Vegas Valley from 1996 to 2022.

For the first time, the report highlights data around age, race, employment, and gross domestic product (GDP) — painting an even clearer picture of what’s to come in Clark County.

Job growth expected to be strong in health care and social assistance

In 2021, as pandemic restrictions eased, 71,000 jobs were added in Clark County. Additionally, around 9,000 new jobs in the hospitality industry are expected by 2024 due to the addition of new projects and hotel rooms.

Between 2021 and 2060, CBER predicts that 498,000 jobs will be added and that by 2025, health care and social assistance will be the second largest sector after accommodation and food services, helping to diversify the economy of southern Nevada.

The shift to health care and social assistance activity partly reflects the predictions of an aging population. Clark County residents age 65 and older are expected to more than double over the next 38 years, to more than 889,000 by 2060. By 2060, health care will account for 14.7% of Southern Nevada GDP, down from 10.7% today.

After 2038, Hispanics are expected to be the largest population group in the county, accounting for 60.2% of population growth by race over the next 38 years.

Use of data for public investment

“All of the data that makes up the demographic forecast paints a picture of what our community will look like in the coming decades and the opportunities and challenges that come with it,” said CBER Director Andrew Woods. “The report has proven to be a useful guide to making proactive planning decisions that have saved taxpayers money and resources in a variety of ways, such as upfront investments in government policy and infrastructure. that have allowed Southern Nevada to reduce total water consumption while continuing to add new residents. »

To further discuss its demographic forecast and answer questions about the economy, CBER will host a virtual town hall at noon on August 18. The conversation will be moderated by UNLV Acting Vice President of Student Affairs, Keith Rogers, and will include CBER Andrew Woods and Research Director Stephen Miller. To register and submit questions in advance, visit this link.

About the CBER Report

First created in 1996, CBER’s Clark County Annual Population Forecast was developed on behalf of local government agencies including the Southern Nevada Regional Transportation Commission, Southern Nevada Regional Planning Coalition , the Southern Nevada Water Authority and members of the forecasting group. The report has helped these agencies make important proactive decisions on everything from how many more schools to build to how many police officers, firefighters and doctors to hire to support growth. For example, per capita water use has dropped 23% since 2002, even though an additional 800,000 residents have moved to Clark County. This was achieved in part through political and technological changes made in advance, decisions that were informed by data from CBER’s forecasts.

To create the annual population forecasts, the CBER research team uses the Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) model, an econometric forecasting model that takes into account the dynamic feedback between economic and demographic variables. The team then incorporates the most recent information available regarding local employment and its growth, as well as local public and private investment projects such as the planned inventory of hotel rooms and the SNRTC’s investment in transport infrastructure. For the first time, the team has included data on reporting accuracy over the past two decades. In 2001, former CBER Director Keith Schwer predicted that 2.276 million people would live in Clark County by 2020. According to the 2020 US Censusthere were approximately 2.265 million people residing in Clark County.